Superannuation: Switching and Roulette Wheels

The introduction of choice has resulted in Australia’s superannuation system providing unprecedented flexibility (through increased investment options and the timing choices) for members to optimise their expected benefits. This paper examines the impact of switching between investment options using a normalised ranked return or “roulette wheel” approach developed by Bauer and Dahlquist (2001) for the Australian setting. The paper tests various switching strategies for both single-sector and blended options, for the period 1985–2005, finding that members require forecast accuracy of around 70% to be successful at market timing. Finally, the paper considers the impact of switching strategies on accumulated balances.Superannuation, investment options

GraphTool : a tool for interactive design and manipulation of graphs and graph algorithms

GraphTool is an interactive tool for editing graphs and visualizing the execution and results of graph algorithms. It runs under both the SunView and X Windows environments and has a full window/mouse interface which is as similar as possible for the two windowing systems. In addition, there is a standalone program called the Wrapper which simulates the Graph-Tool interface without graphics for batch processing of graph algorithms. While the primary purpose of GraphTool is to provide a means for experimentally investigating the performance of graph algorithms, it has other useful features as well. It provides features for printing graphs in a visually appealing format, which makes it easier to prepare papers for publication. It also provides a facility for "animating" algorithms, which means that it can be used in computer assisted instruction (CAI) and for preparing video presentations of algorithms

Idiosyncratic Volatility: Evidence from Asia

The traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model states that assets can earn only higher returns if they have a high beta. However, evidence shows that the single risk factor is not quite adequate for describing the cross-section of stock returns. The current consensus is that firm size and book-to-market equity factors are pervasive risk factors besides the overall market factor. Malkiel and Xu (1997 and 2000) further the debate in empirical asset pricing by stating that idiosyncratic volatility is useful in explaining the cross-sectional expected returns. In this paper we provide international evidence on the relationship between expected stock returns, overall market factor, firm size and idiosyncratic volatility. Our findings suggest that size and idiosyncratic volatility premium are real and pervasive. We find that small and high idiosyncratic volatility stocks generate superior returns and hence suggest that such firms carry risk premia. Our findings also suggest that idiosyncratic volatility is more powerful than the CAPM beta and the firm size effect. Our findings challenge the portfolio theory of Markowitz (1952) and the CAPM of Sharpe (1964), which advances the notion that it is rational for a utility maximizing investor to hold a well-diversified portfolio of investments to eliminate idiosyncratic risks.Idiosyncratic risk, Portfolio Theory, Capital Asset Pricing Model, Size effect and Beta.

Investor Expectations and Systematic Risk

This study refines the estimation of beta risk within the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) framework. Evidence is provided that the link between ex-ante risk and ex-post returns is strengthened by more accurately reflecting the formation of investor expectations. An adaptive expectations approach is employed as an estimation technique consistent with the behavioural patterns of investors. Finally, the study compares the capability of risk estimates from both the standard CAPM and adaptive expectation methods to account for future asset returns in Australia.Asset Pricing; Adaptive Expectations; Australia.

On the Value Premium in Malaysia

Davis, Fama and French (2000) report that the value premium in United States’ stocks is robust. Herein, we present out-of-sample evidence for Malaysia, finding that value stocks outperform growth stocks and document an arbitrage opportunity. We observe that the mean monthly returns are substantially higher for the two mimic portfolios (SMB and HML) when compared with the market portfolio. For the period 1991 through 1999, an investor generated 1.92% (annually) holding the market portfolio in Malaysia, compared with the two mimic portfolios, SMB and HML with returns of 17.70% and 17.69% respectively. We also observe that the standard deviations for the two mimic portfolios are significantly lower than the standard deviation of the market portfolio. Moreover, the findings presented in this study reject the notion of survivorship bias advanced by Kothari, Shanken and Sloan (1995) and the data-snooping hypothesis attributed to Black (1993) and Mackinlay (1995) as an explanation for the value premium.Asset pricing, multifactor models, value premium, arbitrage

Institutional Homogeneity and Choice in Superannuation

In this analysis of institutional investor performance, two questions are addressed. First, what degree of similarity is observed within the market place for retail superannuation funds? Second, what are the implications of homogenous behaviour for member choice policy? The answers from this study are as follows: as an industry, institutional investors destroyed value for superannuation investors for the period 1991 through 2003, under-performing passive portfolio returns by around 60 basis points per annum. Moreover, we find there is a great deal of clustering around this average underperformance. It also appears as though funds have similar risk characteristics which are, on average, defensive. The findings suggest that the products offered by those competing in this market are very similar in nature, hence limiting the potency of choice policy in Australia.Superannuation, underperformance